South Africans Prepare for Tightest Election Since 1994
On May 29, South Africans will head to the polls to elect national and provincial lawmakers in what is expected to be the most closely contested election since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994.
The African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled South Africa for the past three decades and was once led by Nelson Mandela, faces a challenging election. Current President Cyril Ramaphosa and his party are bracing for what many believe will be their toughest political battle yet.
Voter Demographics and Election Stakes
South Africa, with a population of around 62 million, has over 27 million registered voters. These voters will select lawmakers for provincial legislatures and 400 members of the National Assembly. The election is conducted on a party basis, and the party with the most seats in Parliament will ultimately elect the president, wielding significant national power.
Key Political Contenders
Among the 70 registered political parties, the main contenders include the ANC, the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is also a notable competitor.
The ANC currently holds 230 seats in Parliament but saw its share of votes drop to 57.5% in 2019, down from over 60% in previous elections. Many opinion polls suggest the ANC may struggle to secure the 50% needed to avoid a runoff or coalition, although political analyst Kealeboga Maphunye from the University of South Africa believes the ANC might still manage to retain power due to its incumbent advantage.
Bonginkosi Ngwenya, a researcher at the Human Sciences Research Council, notes that while traditional parties still command significant support, new and smaller parties are gaining momentum. These include the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, the African Transformation Movement, and the Patriotic Alliance. Although Zuma himself is barred from running due to his 2021 conviction for contempt of court, the MK Party is seen as a significant challenger, particularly in the populous KwaZulu-Natal province.
Key Election Issues
Several pressing issues are expected to influence voter decisions on May 29. Unemployment, which stands at nearly 33% – the highest globally – is a major concern. Corruption and crime, particularly high rates of rape in cities like Johannesburg and Cape Town, are also significant issues.
The country’s ongoing energy crisis, leading to electricity rationing and rolling blackouts, has been a focal point in election campaigns. Additionally, the influx of undocumented migrants from neighboring and Asian countries has been a contentious topic.
International issues have also featured in the campaigns, notably South Africa’s involvement in the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza, reflecting the country’s prominent role in these global matters.
As South Africans prepare to vote, the outcome remains uncertain, with the potential to significantly reshape the nation’s political landscape.